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Daily Forex Commentary
Tuesday, 9 February 2010 - Market Commentary:: Australian Dollar: After gapping higher on the open yesterday the Aussie dollar pared back gains above 87 cents to spend the majority of the Asian day exchanging between 0.8640 and 0.8680. With no major news overnight the AUD/USD continued to hover within this range and despite several attempts to consolidate above 87 cents it opens this morning around 0.8660. Today sees the release of NAB Business Conditions survey which could move the currency out of its recent range.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8600 to 0.8700
:: Great Britain Pound: Despite the lack of any major economic data releases overnight the Pound Sterling remained relatively volatile during offshore trade as investors remained nervous about the prospects for the broader Euro-Zone region whilst at the same time keeping a close eye on upcoming U.K data. Following an initial dip below 1.5550 during early London exchange the GBP/USD bounced back to post an overnight high of 1.5655 in New York trade. This morning sees the GBP open at 1.5605 USD and 1.8030 AUD ahead of this evening’s release of U.K December Trade Balance data with the deficit expected to improve slightly.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7950 to 1.8075
:: New Zealand Dollar: Yesterday’s 4.4% rise in the January N.Z QV House Price index seemed to exert little influence on the Kiwi as it maintained a tight trading band between 0.6855 and 0.6885 during the Asian time-zone. The NZD/USD had a brief look above 69 cents however it quickly settled back to finish at 0.6855 and with no meaningful N.Z data until Friday’s Retail Sales the Kiwi is likely to continue to take its lead from developments across the Tasman and in Europe.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6800 to 0.6885
:: Majors: The Euro held on to support around 1.3620 against the Greenback during early offshore exchange to post an overnight high at 1.3712. With only second tier economic data in the form of the Sentix Euro-Zone investor confidence survey released the market investors kept a close eye on the European sovereign debt issues, in particular the much publicised CDS market, otherwise known as Credit Default Swaps. CDS spreads which effectively measure the cost of insuring against debt default narrowed overnight giving the Euro a much needed boost in confidence. Adding to the upside in the Euro was an increase in risk appetite following some gains on European and U.S equity markets with the latter however reversing early morning gains to finish the session slightly in the red. This morning sees the Greenback exchanging around 1.3665 and 89.35 against the Euro and Yen respectively ahead of this evening’s German economic data as European sovereign debt issues are expected to continue to dominate the limelight.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: Jan NAB Business Confidence
- NZD: No Data Expected
- USD: No Data Expected
- GBP: Dec Trade Balance
- EUR: German Dec Trade Balance & Jan CPI
- JPY: No Data Expected
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