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Daily Forex Commentary
Friday, 25 July 2008 - Market Commentary:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar has had a tumultuous week and opens the Friday session at 0.9584. The overnight range saw a high of 0.9636 and a low of 0.9540. In the absence of any major economic data, the Aussie was dragged lower yesterday in the local time zone in line with a sharply weaker New Zealand Dollar. A steady greenback overnight has helped to curtail the selling and a quiet local session is on the cards today. The Aussie is steady against the Euro, Pound and Kiwi, but lower against the Japanese Yen.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9560 to 0.9650
:: Great Britain Pound: The Great British Pound moved lower overnight after a massive slump in retail sales for the month of June. The data came in down 3.9 per cent, its lowest level in 22 years pushing the pound to an overnight low of 1.9818. Tonight sees the release of second-quarter GDP which is forecast to slow to 0.2 per cent. On the cross rate, the pound is steady against the Australian Dollar, having hung onto yesterday’s gains, and is currently changing hands at 2.0810.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0700 to 2.0760
:: New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens steady this morning at 0.7425. The range over the past 24 hours saw a high of 0.7448 and a low of 0.7389. The kiwi has stabilised after yesterday’s sharp decline after the RBNZ cut official interest rates by a quarter of 1 per cent. With no data due for release today in New Zealand a quiet local trading session is expected. The risk however, remains to the downside. On the cross rates, the Kiwi is up a shade against the Aussie at 0.7740.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7400 to 0.7435
:: Majors: The U.S. Dollar had a mixed night against the majors and is weaker against the yen at 107.29 and the Euro is steady at 1.5681. U.S. home sales fell 2.6 per cent in June indicating that the housing market has yet to bottom out. Weak economic data was not restricted to the United States as the Euro hit a 16-day low of 1.5628 after the German IFO business climate index fell sharply in July putting paid to any further near-term rate hikes. Earlier in the session, trade data in Japan revealed that exports fell 1.7 per cent for the month of June. This was the first fall in almost 4 years as demand for cars and electronic goods eased.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: No data expected
- CAD: No data expected
- EUR: No data expected
- GBP: GDP, Q2
- JPY: CPI, July
- NZD: No data expected
- USD: New Home Sales, June
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