Daily Forex Commentary

Open the calendar
)

Tuesday, 07 February 2012 - Market Commentary

By Michael Judge

Australian

Dollar

Retails Sales in Australia posted their weakest annual growth in 27 years with Annual Sales growing by a mere 2.4 percent in a report released by the ABS yesterday. In the crucial month of December Sales posted a surprise fall of 0.1 percent which saw the Australian Dollar sold for much of the intraday session trading to a 24-hour low of 1.0682 against its US Counterpart. Despite the weak reading the RBA is due meet  today where its widely expected they will reduce the benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points from its current level 4.25 percent. Opening this morning lower against the Greenback at a rate of 1.0729, trading ranges are  likely to remain choppy  given the high chance that a rate cut has already been priced in to the Australian Dollar’s current price.  

We expect a range today of 1.0650 – 1.0790

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar traded sideways for much of yesterday and despite the positive employment reading bolstering demand for the kiwi overnight Friday, it has struggled to advance from its five-month high against its US Counterpart around the 83.50 US Cents Level.  With New Zealand Markets closed yesterday the Kiwi lost half a cent over the course of the local session drifting to an eventual low of 0.8285.  Concerns that Greece’s political leaders will fail to reach an agreement on a 130 billion EURO bailout has plagued global risk-sentiment over the course of the last 3 days with sentiment deteriorating as talks drag on. Meanwhile this morning despite the significant headwinds coming out of Europe the Kiwi opens only marginally lower against its US Counterpart currently swapping hands a rate of 0.8336.

We expect a range today of 0.8250 – 0.8380

Great British Pound

UK Stocks dropped yesterday with the FTSE losing 0.2 percent, snapping a four day rally. All eyes have been on Greece over the past 24 hours with European Leaders becomingly increasingly frustrated at the delays in reaching an agreement to the conditions of a bailout.  Despite concerns continuing to mount surrounding the euro-area fiscal crisis the Sterling did manage to find some minor support locally yesterday with house prices in January increasing by 0.6 precent, beating expectation. After earlier trading as low as 1.5739 against its US Counterpart the Sterling did find some upward support reaching an eventual high of 1.5840. Meanwhile this morning the Great British Pound opens stronger against both the Australian Dollar (1.4747) and New Zealand Dollar (1.8973)

We expect a range today of 1.4680 – 1.4810

Majors

Following a five week advance for the S&P 500 Index, US Stocks dropped yesterday amid ongoing concerns that Europe’s debt crisis is set to again worsen. In what is turning into a very long-winded process German Chancellor Angela Merkel voiced publicly her concerns over Greece, emphasising the fact that time is now running out to find a solution. With political leaders set to resume meetings this evening significant downside for the 17- Nation Euro remains a distinct possibility should leaders fail to meet the conditions of a 130 billion-euro bailout. Still in Europe, German Factory orders for the month of January surprised on the upside growing by 1.7 percent helping the EURO reach an overnight high of 1.3140 against its US Counterpart, opening this morning at a rate of 1.3125.  In what is shaping up as an eventful evening, whilst Greek talks are likely to dominate risk flows US Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the Senate tonight with traders keen to see whether the central banks bearish stance will remain. Meanwhile this morning there has been a slight move back into the Greenback with the US Currency opening stronger against the Japanese Yen this morning at a rate of 76.559.

Data releases

AUD:

AIG Construction Index, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement

NZD: Labor Cost Index q/q

JPY:  

Leading Indicators

GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

EUR:

German Industrial Production m/m

USD:

 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Consumer Credit m/m

Back to top

Open the calendar
)

Currency Converter

Rate: 0.9939
=
Rate: 1.0061
=
Go
See My FX Dashboard for more info

Register Free

Registration is quick and easy. Access live customer rates, free tools and make international payments.

Register today
Already registered? Login
Get our free commentary
Stay on top of the news with updates from our expert dealers on the latest currency movements. You can unsubscribe any time and your email address is safe – see our >Privacy Policy.


Keep me up to date:
Get free rate alerts
Choose ccy pair and enter the exchange rate. An alert will be triggered when the exchange rate is reached and an email will be sent to you. You can unsubscribe any time and your email address is safe – see our Privacy Policy.
select
/
 


Mobile Forex trading tools

Make money transfers or currency conversions on the go via our mobile site, iPhone or Android apps. Learn more here

Banners

Sitemap

You're in good hands:

  • TRUSTe online privacy certification
  • AFMA Full Member of AFMA
    (Australian Financial Markets Association)

IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites. Please read our Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.

DISCLAIMER: OzForex makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the suitability, completeness, quality or exactness of the information and models provided in this web site. Read full disclaimer.

OzForex provides international money transfer services to private clients and business customers. Use our free currency converter, exchange rate charts, economic calendar, in-depth currency news and updates and benefit from competitive exchange rates and outstanding customer service.

Regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484) © 2011 OzForex Pty Ltd ABN 65 092-375-703. Read our Money Laundering Statement.