AUD in Focus January 2014


AUD/USD lost ground in December, declining by -2.0% for the month overall. The decline was in part due to the Federal Reserve’s tapering measures, improving US employment and other economic numbers and mixed overall economic numbers out of Australia. US economic data was mostly positive, with the exception of Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which both showed weakness in the manufacturing sector.

AUD/USD tried to rally off its August 0.8848 low but failed to get beyond 0.9757 in October before falling yet again throughout November and December to reach another medium term low point at the 0.8820 level on December 15th. The rate has since consolidated those losses below the 0.9005 level, staying largely beneath important psychological support noted at 0.9000.

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AUD/EUR extended its previous month’s losses, falling by -3.5 percent overall in December. The decline was in part due to asset flows and risk appetite favouring the Euro over the Aussie, a sharp drop in precious metals prices and mixed economic data out of both economies.

After AUD/EUR peaked at 0.8616 in July of 2012, the cross has since been trading mostly lower. The cross managed to correct up to a reaction high of 0.7116 in November but then softened throughout most of December to hit a fresh medium term low point of 0.6410 on the 22nd. AUD/EUR has since consolidated above that level and below 0.6614.

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GBP/AUD extended its November gains in December, rising +3.2% overall. The cross has gained an impressive +8.8% in the past two months in part due to improving economic numbers in the UK, declining precious metals and commodity prices and risk appetite favouring Sterling over the Aussie.

After GBP/AUD bounced off the 1.6645 level seen on October 22nd, it then rallied throughout November, December and into early January. This rally readily surpassed a series of similar peaks in the 1.7413/82 region, to bring the cross to a high point of 1.8697 on January 1st of 2014, before it then corrected modestly lower to 1.8228.

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